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System Adequacy

System Adequacy

System adequacy measures the ability of a power system to cope with its load in all the steady states it may operate in standard conditions.

Generation adequacy analyses the ability of the generation assets to cover the peak load taking into account uncertainties in the generation availability and on the load level. Uncertainties result from planned and unplanned outages, availability of primary sources, weather conditions such as temperatures, wind, water inflows) Transmission adequacy enhances the analysis with the flexibility provided by interconnections and import / export flows.

How to assess adequacy

How to assess adequacy

The adequacy analysis is based on the comparison between available generation and load at three given reference time points of the year.
The difference between available generating capacity and load at reference time point is called“Remaining Capacity” (RC) calculated under normal conditions. To assess adequacy, Remaining Capacity is compared to a given “Adequacy Reference Margin” (ARM) accounting for unexpected events affecting load and generation. The ARM is calculated for each country and for overall UCTE in order to cover the increase of load from the reference time point to the peak load (called “margin against peak load”), and demand variations or longer term generation outages not covered by operational reserves. For the global overview of adequacy at UCTE level, the ARM is calculated as 5% of UCTE total Net Generating Capacity plus the sum of individual margins against peak load (i.e. the difference between peak load and reference load):

• when Remaining Capacity is over or equal to Adequacy Reference Margin, it means that some generating capacity is likely to be available for export on the power system.
• when Remaining Capacity is lower than Adequacy Reference Margin, it means that the power system is likely to have to rely on import flows when facing severe conditions.

UCTE System Adequacy Forecast

UCTE System Adequacy Forecast

Every year UCTE providers a report for the System Adequacy Forecast for the next 15 years (public document). The UCTE System Adequacy Forecast report aims at providing all players of the European power market with an overview of:

• an overview on generation and load evolution over next 15 years
• a view on the resources available to cope with them as an early input to investment decisions
• an overview of the ability of the UCTE transmission grids, especially interconnections to ensure adequate generation demand balance in any part of the system and on network development in order to guarantee security of supply.

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